Shadows Before the Storm: Iran, Intelligence, and the Shape of Things to Come
The Iran War is causing tension at home. On one side, there is anti-Semitic language that says Trump is just doing the bidding of a war-mongering Israel. They’re saying our political leaders are being pushed or dragged into a useless war just for Israel’s benefit. On the other side, people believe we have been threatened by Iran since 1979, and that things there are never going to change unless we do something.
What a lot of spectators do not realize is there is information flowing that we simply do not see. We are sitting here trying to interpret world events with only scant information. It’s just bad practice to draw a conlusion on a matter before gathering all the information. Unfortunately for us, that information is simply not available until after the fact, so people let their political emotion drive their preemptive conclusions.
I don’t like war, didn’t want it, hate that we are having to deal with it, but I also know that sometimes war is absolutlely necessary. The new pope dared to comment on it on his ‘holiest day’ and implied that all war is unnecessary. The Scriptures, on the other hand, say, “There is a time for war,” and “he [heads of all earthly governments] is not girded with the sword in vain; for he is the minister of God, and the avenger of wrath upon those who commit crime” [Romans 13:4]. The question, then, is, was it time to go to war? Did Iran commit a crime?
Our government in the U.S. does not make its decisions based on the headlines we see, especially in the day in which we live. When was the last time the press actually cared about untainted truth? Apart from Nick Shirley, there are precious few who want to report truth. Every piece of information offered to the public is tainted with political slant. But the government sees intelligence we do not see: classified assessments, intercepted communications, satellite imagery, long-term strategic models. And that is especially true in regard to nuclear capability. What average U.S. citizen has actually seen the intel?
The concern we must have is not only if Iran has a nuclear weapon, but when do they intend to use it? Analysts are calling this ‘breakout capability’. A nation like Iran would not likely simply announce “We have a nuclear bomb now!” But, if they have the materials, the infrastructure, and the delivery system in place, once they decide they have it there may be an immediate decision to use it. Reaction time is almost useless in that scenario. Nuclear war is a different war.
If Iran indeed got closer to that capability, waiting for them to announce it would be a fool’s game for any nation. But for Israel, it is survival itself. They are Iran’s prime target. They have been calling for the destruction of Israel for fifty years. They have publicly said they would see Israel wiped off the map and the name of Israel forgotten, her people utterly destroyed. Other nations simply do not have that threat to deal with.
It’s easy for demagogues to sit on this side of the Atlantic and oversimplify everything. The notion that the U.S. was bullied into this war, or that Trump just wants a war, is an over-simplified, political/emotional reaction devoid of reason. American military and foreign policy decisions are not made by one man in a vacuum, or by another nation, over the whims and fancies of warmongers. There are intelligence gatherers in Israel and the U.S., there is a multiplicity in defense leadership, there are economic considerations, regional stability concerns, and long-term strategic interests. Yes, we have allies that we consult at times, but they do not make our decisions for us. They may not have the same stake in the game, especially the stake that Israel holds: survival. When multiple intelligence streams converge on the same conclusion, nations begin to act, and sometimes before the public understands why. That doesn’t mean every decision is right. But it does mean it’s rarely as simple as outside pressure forcing a reluctant hand.
There is a philosophical divide between how governments must act and how the public thinks. Like it or not, arm-chair quarterbacks are not in the game at all. People assume action should come only after a threat is fully manifest. But, in terms of survival, Israel cannot think that way. There are only about ten million people in Israel, and not all its citizens are among the 7 million Jews; there are Muslims, Christians, Druze, and other citizens with Jews who are all under the constant threat of annihilation. We do not live with that. Those of us who remember the Cold War might come to some familiar memory, but not on the scale that Israel has lived with almost every day since the modern nation was formed.
Israel is about the size of New Jerzey. There are counties in Texas nearly as big. And it sits just over 1100 miles away from Iran. Iran has nuclear-capable missiles that will travel two and four times that distance. If that missile is nuclear armed, it would take barely one or two hits to destroy Israel. That is an existential threat no one else in the world has to think about. Thus, striking first is a necessary policy.
But, for us who believe the Word of God, we have to take another view of the whole situation. The destructive language of Iran is specifically listed in Psalm 83:5-9. In that list, “Amalek” is named, and most readers are not aware of Iran’s connection to Amalek, nor the biblical significance of that name. That name is a specific, destroy-Israel force that was predicted in the Bible before Israel even existed. And the fact that Iran has basically been quoting Psalm 83 for the last fifty years should not be ignored.
But, Iran is not left out of other Biblically significant end-times language. Daniel predicts the Messianic age. In building up to it, he names specific empires, and gives ‘images’ that represent them. Iran’s is the bear. Today, people think Russia is the biblical bear, because Russia has an affinity for bears; this is similar to thinking America is the saving eagle of Israel, when that eagle seen in Revelation was the same Eagle carrying Israel out of Egypt in the Exodus: God’s Spirit.
The nations of Daniel’s visions were Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Rome, where the first three were known then as Babylon, Medo-Persia, and Greece. In Revelation 13, after Daniel’s vision first came to full prophetic fulfillment in those ancient nations, John tells us that a new ‘beast’ built on those images will arise in our future, in one hour. That beast is the lion of Iraq, the bear of Iran, and the leopard of Turkey, becoming one thing, in one hour, and becoming very powerful politically.
This beast rises out of the ‘sea’. Biblical language about the sea, especially in poetry and visions, is often restless, chaotic nations in motion. It also often represents the Fertile Crescent, Mesopotamia, where those three nations reside beside the Mediterranean Sea. This area is the cradle of civilization. Noah actually landed there and created the first vineyard in the post-flood world. [A 5,000 year old vineyard has been found in the region in our day]. So, it is important for us to keep an eye on Israel, and on these nations, in order to determine ‘end things’.
This war, then, is not a ‘fulfilment’ of prophecy like some are saying. It is a prelude, and ‘sign’ or indicator that we are closer, perhaps. How close, we simply cannot say. When we see rising tensions in that region, when we see old power structures re-emerge, if those nations begin to consolidate, we can start to say with stronger conviction that the Revelation is coming soon.
We need to pay attention. We need to ‘read the signs of the times’ and recognize political patterns. But, we also need to avoid premature conclusions and sensational interpretations that put fear in God’s people, or a false prophecy all together, which is the pattern of would-be prophets of late.
Right now, we see intensifying conflict in those ancient regions. We see reassertions of power with weapons that could create sudden catastrophic destruction, and we are watching all nations to see how things align politically.
We cannot predict what will happen, but we can recognize patterns, and compare them to what Scripture says will happen: Empires conglomerate and rise in consolidation of power [not yet, but could be driving that], systems become more unified [technology is there], a final structure with the coolest man ever at the top [the Son of Destruction, who comes from that region]. Yeshua told us it would be irresponsible not to watch the ‘signs of the times’.
This war really began fifty years ago. The fighting started about six weeks ago, however, with thousands of strikes so far. Iran’s military infrastructure is very weak, and the regime that built it was targeted, and most of the leaders killed. But, they are still launching missiles through the region, striking Israel and U.S. sites in the region. They have closed the Strait of Hormuz, which is what is driving up the cost of oil, and causing other nations to get more interested in the goings-on.
Conflict in Lebanon is expanding, and all the Gulf States are on alert. There are talks of a ceasefire, but Iran is refusing to meet demands, and vise versa. Victor Davis Hanson has explained that there are two wars: a military war in which Israel and the U.S. are destroying Iran’s air defenses and crippling its military and targeting drones, missiles and infrastructure; and a political war, where Iran is using nationalism and martyrdom, consolidating internal support [which could grow external soon], and refusing to surrender. The goal is not occupation, but to reduce Iran’s ability to wage war, to prevent nuclear capability, and to break its proxy network. Iran was, after all, the primary source behind Hamas’ efforts on October 7, 2023. We cannot forget that attack when considering Israel’s motivation and purpose in this war. The two are undoubtedly related.
The notion that Israel is controlling U.S. foreign policy is absurd and rooted in Anti-Semitic thought. Blame Israel for everything, in order to justify her destruction. Pharoah did it, Semiramis did it, Caesar did it, Popes did it, Hitler did it, Iran did it, and now Americans are doing it. It is mass form psychosis, in my opinion, an intellectual fever of spiritual origin that they themselves do not even understand.
The U.S. is coming alongside the only democracy and ally in the region, when their very existence hangs in the balance.
The Iran war did not emerge suddenly, nor is it reducible to a single cause or influence. It is the culmination of decades of conflict, accelerated by concerns over nuclear capability, regional proxy warfare, and regime behavior. While the United States and Israel appear to hold the military advantage, the political and long-term outcome remains uncertain. What is clear is that decisions are being made based on intelligence and strategic calculations largely invisible to the public, even as the consequences unfold in full view of the world.
Excellent. Thank you